Posted by
Jonathan on Friday, February 16, 2007 4:17:18 PM
George Santayana famously noted that those who cannot remember the past
are condemned to repeat it. He might have added that those who remember
the past but can’t understand it also suffer the same fate. A case in
point is Justin Logan, a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute
and the author of an incredibly naive op-ed that appeared in
yesterday’s Newark (N.J.) Star-Ledger.
In his op-ed, titled U.S. can endure an ‘unfavorable outcome’ in the Iraq war,
Logan argues that the consequences of a precipitous American withdrawal
from Iraq have been overblown by the Bush Administration. In particular
he claims that a withdrawal would not necessarily damage American
credibility around the world and have little impact on the prospects
for democratic reform in the Middle East. These arguments make little
sense and embody several dangerous assumptions.
Not surprisingly, Logan sees Iraq as another Vietnam. In Vietnam, he
notes, “tens of thousands of Americans died in the pursuit not of
victory but of saving face.” In other words, they died to preserve
American credibility despite arguments made by “wiser voices” within
the Johnson Administration that the costs of defeat were manageable.
Logan implies that credibility is an illegitimate goal in foreign
affairs, something that only vain, egotistical and callous leaders
pursue. Nothing could be further from the truth.
As military scholars and historians from Lao Tzu to Victor Davis Hanson have observed, wars are fundamentally about national will.
Weapons and tactics are obviously important, but in the end they cannot
compensate for a loss of national will. Indeed, the ultimate goal of
all warfare is to impress upon the enemy the futility of resistance.
When one side loses the will to fight, the war is over.
During the Vietnam War, the U.S. was engaged in a global rivalry with
the Soviet Union. The Soviets were watching closely to see if we had
the stomach to defend our beliefs and our allies, as were other
countries around the world. The humiliating pullout of U.S. troops
emboldened our enemies everywhere and led in short order to the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan and the seizure of the American embassy in
Tehran four years later. We’re still dealing with the fallout from
those events.
Even if the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam was “manageable” for
Americans, it was a catastrophe for people in the region. The chaos
spawned by America’s retreat led to the establishment of a totalitarian
regime in Vietnam, mass executions, re-education camps, the boat people
and genocide in Cambodia. Not a word about that from Logan.
No one can say for certain what the effects of a similar American
defeat in Iraq would be. But they would most certainly be bad for the
U.S. and horrible for people in the Middle East. Veteran New York Times
reporter John Burns, recently appeared on the Hugh Hewitt Show and
noted that 3,700 people had died during one recent month in Iraq. He
then observed that it the U.S. departed, Shiite death squads would
probably execute at least that many people in one night. Logan has
nothing to say about this, either.
Logan concedes that the U.S. would lose credibility if it left Iraq. But that’s O.K. with him:
This argument is partially true, as it was in Vietnam.
Al Qaeda will indeed attempt to link our withdrawal to a larger
narrative that includes President Ronald Reagan's retreat from Lebanon
after the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut and our departure from
Somalia after the "Black Hawk Down" incident. But unless our national
leadership allowed our failure in Iraq to call into question other
commitments, this damage certainly could be mitigated.
Any administration extricating U.S. troops from Iraq would have to send
the message that the U.S. military would now refocus its full attention
on al Qaeda. As for other commitments, why would we allow anyone to
conclude that our failure in Iraq had any bearing on them? In
withdrawing, the U.S. should answer questions of credibility loudly and
clearly. Further, demonstrating that we recognize the error of our ways
would indicate a seriousness of purpose and a national magnanimity that
have been lacking throughout the Bush years.
The damage could be mitigated? How, exactly? An American defeat in Iraq
would be the mother of all propaganda victories for the global jihad,
even bigger than the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan. As Israel
has learned to its regret, weakness only earns contempt from Islamic
fanatics. Withdrawing from Iraq would signal to terrorists and hostile
regimes around the world that it’s open season on Americans.
As for Logan’s argument that leaving Iraq would free us to focus on al Qaeda, this guy might have something to say about that.
Logan’s other argument is that cutting and running from Iraq won’t
impact the prospects for democracy in the region because democracy
never had a chance in the Middle East:
The other protest from war supporters is that
withdrawal would sound a death knell for the prospect of liberal
democratic reform in the Middle East -- a reversed version of the
domino theory. But that objection implies that liberal democracy could
sweep across the Islamic world if U.S. forces are kept in Iraq. In
every location where elections have been held in the Muslim world since
the Iraq war -- whether Egypt, the Palestinian territories or Bahrain
-- something close to the worst possible result has emerged.
Basically, the Arabs can’t handle democracy, so why bother? This is
racist and condescending. Besides, social change has to start
somewhere, and it’s clear that the Arab world won’t change without a hard shove from the outside.
If you want to know more about Logan you can read his bio at the Cato Institute’s web site. He looks like he’s about 24 years old. He’s also a member of something called the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy,
which describes itself as “a group of scholars, policy makers and
concerned citizens united by our opposition to an American empire.” Yet
the Star-Ledger chose to feature him at the top of its editorial page.
It’s like this everyday at the Star-Ledger, which makes the Minneapolis Star Tribune look like The National Review.
This is what New Jersey voters get day in and day out: a toxic stew of
Bush hatred, anti-Americanism and defeatism, served up local coverage
of petty criminals and lots and lots of classified advertising. The
voters need to shake off these chains and tell their Congressmen that
they want victory, not defeat, in this war.