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Election Post Mortem

The problem with going out on a limb is that you risk someone coming along and sawing the limb off. That's what happened to me in last week's mid-term elections, which I predicted would result in Democratic gains but not necessarily a Democratic blowout. Unfortunately, the voters decided that it was time for a change and handed control of the House and the Senate to the Democrats. Republicans now face the onerous task of restoring voter confidence, rebuilding a majority in Congress and selecting a presidential candidate who can win in 2008.

There's no shortage of analysis available regarding what went wrong last Tuesday. Historically, Congressional elections held in the sixth year of a president's term have produced large gains for the party out of power. And certainly many people simply wanted a change after six years of George Bush and the Republicans in Congress running the show.

The war obviously was a major factor. Based on the exit polls, it's clear that many independents and conservative Democrats who supported the invasion of Iraq lost their patience with the war's alleged lack of progress. Republican candidates in many close races needed these voters to make it over the top but failed to convince them to stay the course in Iraq. In addition, the Democrats were savvy enough to run conservative candidates in many states, such as James Webb in Virginia. As a result, large numbers of independents and conservative Democrats returned to the Democrat fold.

Bush and the Republicans also alienated the Republican base by approving huge new government entitlements (prescription drugs, anyone?), expanding the size of the non-military federal government, failing to control illegal immigration and failing to push more aggressively for an up or down vote in the Senate on judicial nominees. On these issues, the Republicans acted like Democrats. As a result, a lot of Republicans simply stayed home.

And of course, the mainstream media did its part. Six years of negative headlines and disparagement of Bush and the Republicans had an undeniable impact.

Now that the Democrats control Congress again, we're likely to see a draw down of forces in Iraq, accompanied by renewed pandering to the U.N. and other efforts to regain the "respect" of the global community. These actions will be portrayed in the Muslim world as a humiliating defeat for the United States. Taxes will increase, as will regulations on businesses of all sizes. Populist Democrats will ramp up their attacks on Wal-Mart, the oil companies and other representatives of "big business." And now that the Democrats have subpoena power, there will be an endless series of investigations of the Bush Administration in order to set the stage for 2008.

Incredibly, the Republicans received little or no credit for the economy, which has rarely been better. Unemployment currently stands at an unbelievably low 4.4 percent, business is booming and tax receipts are up. The deficit is lower than expected, gas prices are below $2.00 in many places, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently broke 12,000. None of it seemed to matter.

The lion's share of blame for this debacle ultimately rests with the Bush Administration, which has utterly failed to communicate its goals and accomplishments to the American people. The situation in Iraq is difficult, but that's no reason to abandon the country and hand the terrorists a victory. Doing so will threaten Western Civilization as well as the national security of the United States, sooner or later. A competent White House could have explained this to the American people. Instead, Bush and his staff allowed the Democrats and their enablers in the mainstream media to frame the debate.

Recovering from this won't be easy. But there are still some reasons for optimism. The Democrats can't help acting like, well, Democrats, anymore than a leopard can change its spots. If the Democrats stay true to form, voters will tire of them relatively quickly. That's especially true if the economy takes a nosedive. Once can even hope that Republicans take their drubbing to heart and emerge as more principled (and electable) conservatives.

Finally, the elite media in this election abandoned its last remaining shreds of objectivity. The MSM's shameless lies, omissions and biased reporting on behalf of the Democrats were blatantly obvious, and its circulation and influence continued to decline. Meanwhile, the alternative media of talk radio and the blogosphere will continue to grow.

Unfortunately, the world won't stop spinning while the Republicans try to get their act together. The United States faces grave security threats, chief among them the spread of nuclear weapons to tyrants, petty thugs and terrorists. The central task for Democrats and Republicans going forward is to establish a bipartisan consensus on national security. If they can't do that, then nothing else will matter.

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