MSNBC:

Polls: Democrats Closer to Taking Senate Control

The Washington Post:

Independent Voters Favor Democrats by 2 to 1 in Poll

Democrats Strengthen Chances For Senate

Reuters:

Poll puts Democrats far ahead in Congress

Bush faces political nightmare if Democrats win

The New York Times:

Anger at Washington Boosts Democrat in Swing State

U.S. Prosecutors Targeting GOP Lawmakers

This Time, It’s Not the Economy

Florida Mirrors GOP Election Problems

Guardedly, Democrats Are Daring to Believe

Associated Press:

GOP Losses Could Spark Partisan Warfare

Etc., etc. If you believe these stories, the election is in the bag. Democrats are poised to sweep both houses of Congress and reassume the majorities they lost in 1994.

There is no doubt that many voters are dissatisfied with the performance of Congress over Iraq, immigration and a host of other issues. But that doesn't mean that we're looking at a Democratic blowout. First of all, I just do not put much faith in election polls, which tend to be weighted in favor of Democrats. They're also susceptible to a wide range of statistical errors and misinterpretations relating to how samples are selected, what questions are asked and how the questions are asked.

What's probably happening here is that the poll results have been seized on and amplified by the media, partly out of wishful thinking and partly out of desire to discourage Republicans from voting. After all, why vote if the Democrats already have the election wrapped up? This ploy has worked in the past. The problem for the Democrats is that voters now have alternative sources of information, including talk radio and the Internet, that tell a very different story.

Making election predictions will always be more art than science. But I'll go out on a limb and predict that the election is not going to be as wonderful for the Democrats as they expect. The Democrats have offered virtually no substantive ideas on how they would improve the economy (not that much improvement is necessary) or fight the War on Terror. These are serious issues, and voters are unlikely to hand control of Congress to a party that has demonstrated time and again that it is not serious.